Reconfiguring maritime networks due to the Belt and Road Initiative: impact on bilateral trade flows

This paper aims to analyse the potential effects on bilateral trade movements of reconfiguration maritime networks brought about by Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The gravity model international is applied examine hypothesized impact network between nine exporting countries (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Panama, Colombia, Costa Rica, Singapore, Malaysia Indonesia) their 128 trading partners. panel data five components Liner Shipping Bilateral Connectivity Index, export value, gross domestic product (GDP) countries, GDP partners distance linking them these for each years from 2008 2016 are used in analysis. results show that estimated coefficient number transhipments negative, revealing an inverse relationship exports, reconfirming a redesign supply chain response BRI could significantly improve values. Furthermore, reduction required transhipments, because with partners, will structure located along three strategic chokepoints: Suez Canal, Panama Strait Malacca. In general terms, BRI-driven linked improvement productivity countries. An innovative gravity-based econometric model, large set data, introduced below, aiming at modelling effect reconfiguration.